Tubman

Study 2 — Residential

Uptown

Same neighborhood, same nine years. Houses gained 50% after inflation. Condos gained 2%.

Written for owners and small investors · Condo owners, small landlords, buyers evaluating the market

Condo prices in 2025, with 2016 set at 100. Two independent federal indexes for the same ZIP codes read 138.2 and 136.8.

135.2

real house price growth, 2016–2024

+50.1%

The challenge

Uptown is discussed as one residential market, and its median price is quoted as though it describes what an owner there experienced. But the neighborhood is overwhelmingly condos, and a median that blends condos with houses and small multi-family describes almost nobody's actual position.

The outcome

Separated by asset class and measured across every year rather than endpoint to endpoint, the three markets diverge sharply. Houses and small multi-family gained substantially in real terms while condos were close to flat, which means the headline neighborhood figure was describing a minority of the housing stock. The full study publishes the price series, the repeat-sales work and the independent federal cross-check.

What the study found

Three things worth knowing.

  • Between 2016 and 2024, Uptown houses gained 50.1% after inflation. Condos gained 1.7% over the same window.
  • Small multi-family gained 24.4% after inflation, sitting between the two.
  • The Tubman condo index reads 135.2 with 2016 set to 100, cross-checked against FHFA ZIP-level indexes of 138.2 and 136.8.

Read this before quoting a figure

Descriptive, not causal. Many things changed in Uptown between 2016 and 2025 and this analysis cannot separate transit effects from the rest. Condo, house and small multi medians are different markets and are not comparable to each other.

Go deeper

The full study.

High-level takeaways, published openly. The full price series, the repeat-sales work and the FHFA cross-check sit behind the study.

Read the full study

See the full case study.

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South Shore and Uptown are separate products, separate markets and separate buyers. Neither study is used as evidence for or against the other.

Read the South Shore study